[5/15/03]The summer rise on the way down the Mississippi River will top out on Memorial Day weekend a foot and a half higher than expected just days ago, forecasters said.

As of this morning, the crest is forecast for 42.5 feet on May 25. Flood stage is 43 feet.

The new numbers mean some farmers north and south of the city will lose crops and may not be able to replant. Structural flooding will also occur, but in homes that frequently go under.

In the snowmelt-related rise, the Mississippi River topped out at here at 38.8 feet on March 7. Any sigh of relief was premature.

A series of heavy rains in April and this month across the middle of the United States has dropped large amounts of water in the upper basin. During a lull, a new crest of 41 feet on May 22 had been predicted.

The rains haven’t really stopped, and upward revisions are possible.

“Based on what is on the ground now, it will probably hold,” said Jeff Graschel, a river forecaster based in Slidell, La., at the National Weather Service Forecast Center.

In river terms, the crest coming down the Ohio River toward Cairo, Ill., where the Ohio joins the Mississippi is a broad one. That means any more significant rainfall on the Ohio and Tennessee rivers could push the crest prediction up for Vicksburg and the rest of the lower river.

Late spring and early summer rises seem to be more common. “We used to say (a 43-foot level in May) was unusual,” said Wayland Hill of the water control management section of the Vicksburg District Corps of Engineers.

But the Mississippi exceeded 45 feet as recently as 2002 and pointed to several other years when flood stages were measured on the local gauge in May.

Terry Rector, area director for the Mississippi Cooperative Extension Service, said farmers in lower areas north and south of town are realizing they will lose their crops, mostly corn and soybeans.

Some cotton south of town and a major loss of cotton near Eagle Lake is likely, Rector said.

Hill said the Corps will close the Steele Bayou Control Structure to keep the Mississippi and Yazoo Rivers from backing into the South Delta when equal levels are reached.

With the water on the ground already in the Delta, with the gates closed, the sump will rise to 85 feet mean sea level and could go to 88 feet msl with any appreciable rain.

Rector said that makes some cotton between Steele Bayou and Eagle Lake vulnerable.

Rector said several of the area farmers took advantage of good weather and planted their soybeans early. “That’s the way to go except for a flood,” Rector said.