[1/8/05]Storms upstream will push the Mississippi River above flood stage at Vicksburg in about two weeks, river forecasters say.

Readings above flood stage are unusual in January, but not unprecedented.

Forecasters at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center in Slidell, La., said the Mississippi will crest at about 43.5 feet on Jan. 21. Flood stage at Vicksburg is 43 feet.

The local river was at a stage of 29.5 feet Friday morning, up .8 foot from the reading Thursday. Average water levels for this time of year are 18 to 19 feet.

“We’ve got a lot of water from some heavy rain storms coming out of the Upper Mississippi River and the Ohio River,” said Angelo Dalessandro, a forecaster in Slidell.

He said snow is not a major factor in the rise, although it did prime the situation by saturating the ground and putting extra water in the rivers when it melted.

This is the second time in a month that the Mississippi has been predicted to reach an unusually high stage. On Dec. 21, the river crested at a level of 39.3 feet, well above the normal 16-foot readings for that time of year.

The new, 43.5 foot crest is also well above the normal readings of about 20 feet for that date in January.

“Since 1937, the river has exceeded flood stage only one other time,” said Robert Simrall, chief of the Water Control Branch of the Vicksburg District Corps of Engineers.

That was in 1991 when the Mississippi reached a level of 44.3 feet on Jan. 22.

Oddly enough, Simrall said, the Jan. 22 crest was the only time the Mississippi exceeded flood stage that year.

With the 43.5 foot water level, Simrall said the usual low-lying areas around Vicksburg will be flooded.

Water begins to move into the Long Lake community when the Mississippi reaches a stage of 36.5 feet and Long Lake Road is overtopped about a mile north of the community at 39.5 feet.

When the river reaches 41.2 feet, Long Lake Road is overtopped near the Anderson-Tully Co. mill in Waltersville.

By the time the river reaches 42.1 feet, Chickasaw Road goes under just west of the Chickasaw Subdivision.

At the predicted crest, Ford Subdivision begins to be affected.

But, Simrall said, the crest forecast may not be all the water the area gets this winter.

“There is a big front coming to the upper valley next week,” he said, adding the additional rainfall could push the Mississippi to even higher levels. Until the storm hits, there is no way of telling just how much more water will be dumped into the Mississippi River.

Dalessandro agreed next week’s storm has the potential of causing either a higher flood stage or a longer period during which the Mississippi will be high. However, he said the storm moving through the area Friday and through the weekend won’t have much effect on the Mississippi River because the system is not as large as next week’s system has the potential to be.

After rain most of Friday and Friday night, weather forecasters said the skies should begin clearing today and remain partly cloudy most of the weekend.

Fortunately for this area, Simrall said, forecasters from the National Weather Service believe most of the rain will be confined to the northern part of the country and there will not be much rain in this area that could affect the South Delta.

Without a great deal of rain in the Mississippi Delta, the Vicksburg District hopes it will be able to close the control structures at Steele Bayou and the Little Sunflower River and keep water from backing into that area.