Two opposing views are emerging on the immediate future for the gaming industry in Vicksburg, thanks to mixed results over the last three months from casinos along the Mississippi River.

One predicts continued growth because of gains made in both players and revenue since Hurricane Katrina damaged or destroyed 16 casinos along the Gulf Coast Aug. 29.

&#8220It’s primed to move up here,” said Mississippi State Gaming Commission chairman Larry Gregory, citing the expected addition of two more casinos in Vicksburg in the next two years as the reason.

Those two proposed developments, one by Lakes Entertainment and the other, Pot of Gold Casino and Magnolia Hills Resort, are working their way through the commission’s process to receive approval to begin building.

Gregory added that gross gaming revenues are showing a &#8220substantial rebound,” given the stoppage of revenue flow for three full months after Katrina.

The other view predicts a leveling-off effect due to historical trends that a leading casino and gaming market analyst characterized as &#8220flat” in a report released Feb. 14, the day Isle of Capri announced the sale of its Vicksburg and Bossier City, La., casinos in a $240 million cash deal.

Written by Lawrence A. Klatzkin of the New York office of global investment bank Jefferies & Company Inc., the report viewed the sale as a &#8220positive” and said the company’s stock value remained strong.

&#8220While the Vicksburg market has had some gains due to hurricane-related closures of casinos in southern Mississippi, historically Vicksburg has been a fairly flat market,” the report said.

The Bossier City market was &#8220disliked” by the firm’s analysts in the report, because of &#8220increasing Indian casino competition in Oklahoma,” closer to the larger Dallas market.

Both the Vicksburg and Bossier City properties were sold to Legends Gaming LLC, a company started two years ago by casino industry veterans William J. McEnery, Michael E. Kelly and G. Dan Marshall. The sale is expected to be finalized by July.

Klatzkin said more recently that the gains were players traveling to casinos along the Mississippi River in the last quarter of 2005 due to the hurricane. Klatzkin indicated that a return to previous trends was in the offing.

&#8220I expect a gradual dissipation because it is not a high-growth market,” Klatzkin said.

Figures released by the state Tax Commission show decreases in gross revenues to the casinos in the Mississippi River counties in February, compared with January.

River casinos took in just over $139 million in February, down from $159 million in January but still more than the $134 million in December.

On the coast, three casinos have reopened since December, the Imperial Palace, New Palace and the Isle of Capri, all in Biloxi. Those three took in $58 million in February, a figure Gregory said can go &#8220nowhere but up,” acknowledging that February has only 28 days and might be a factor in the decrease.

Still, a long-term look at both gross revenue and tax revenues from gaming seem to indicate the pattern that analysts alluded to in their reports.

Mississippi legalized casinos restricted to coastal and river counties in 1990 and the first full year of operations was 1994.

Gross revenues from the casinos in counties along the river topped the $1 billion mark in 1995 and rose steadily until leveling off at a little more than $1.5 billion in 2000. Since then, yearly totals have swung slightly between $1.52 and $1.58 billion. Vicksburg casinos have traditionally netted about $200 million per year from wagers.

Casinos along Gulf Coast counties brought in just under $885 million in 2005, down from a one-year record of $1.2 billion in 2004.

Tax revenue transferred to local governments have remained steady over the last four completed fiscal years, at around $109 million to $111 million. The total for fiscal year 2005-06 is behind last year’s pace due to the Katrina-related closures, with it likely to fall between $85 and $90 million.

Locally, the four casino properties in Vicksburg paid a total of $945,127.78 in revenue taxes in February, the highest monthly total in five months. Levied by the state at 3.2 percent, the revenue tax is divided into 10 percent for schools, 25 percent for Warren County and 65 percent for the city.

A second revenue tax is a .8 percent share of the state’s 8 percent revenue tax. It is split based on population proportions between Vicksburg and Warren County. The city also collects a once-per-year fee of $150 per gaming position and casino developments pay property taxes on all of their developments, including hotels and restaurants.

Due to the higher totals, the city’s share of the revenue tax in February showed a slight dip from January, taking in $865,235 compared with $894,996 in January. The county took in $346,190 in February, an increase of about 5 percent from January. Tax revenue figures for March are expected in about two weeks.

The report also made note of the two proposed casinos and the expansion plans of Vicksburg’s top casino, Ameristar Casinos, to back up its reasoning for its forecast.

At Ameristar, construction is moving quickly on a 1,000-space parking garage next to its casino barge on the river, with work on a 14-story, 400-room hotel to begin after the garage is done.

The new hotel is the second phase of an expansion that includes the garage, a VIP room, 7,000 more slots, a poker room, two restaurants and new offices overlooking the river. Its existing hotel on Washington Street is also undergoing a redesign.

The expansion, estimated at $150 million, is a result of Ameristar’s strategy of &#8220spending money to make money,” said general manager Ray Nielsen.

&#8220The market can’t grow without expansion,” Nielsen said, adding that the casino’s competitors in Vicksburg have seen their expenditures cover only their costs and turned in no positive revenues.

Nielsen’s own views on the area’s viability as a market essentially lined up with that of the predictions of the Jefferies & Company report, saying that any hurricane-related gains made at local casinos are likely to last only another year.

That outlook is the reason, Nielsen said, for Ameristar’s aggressive strategy to stay ahead of the pack here.

&#8220I hope the new owners of the Isle spend some money and reinvest in that property,” Nielsen said.

Additionally, Ameristar has purchased a few small properties along North Washington Street, including a former gas station. The role of those properties in the casino’s overall expansion plans has not been determined, Nielsen said.