Another day has passed without forecasters changing the expected crest of 46 feet on the Vicksburg gauge, but the Mississippi River will get there more slowly.

The Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center now says the river will not pass flood stage, 43 feet, until Friday. Earlier predictions said that level would be passed Wednesday. The highest reading is still expected April 4.

“We’re seeing a little more attrition than we anticipated,” said Marty Pope, senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Jackson. “That means we’re seeing some of the levees that have not experienced high waters in recent years actually soaking up a lot of the water and reducing the daily rises in some places, such as Vicksburg.”

The Ohio River has crested at Cairo, Ill., and the Mississippi at Cape Girardeau, Mo., has begun to fall. Memphis was up 1.2 feet this morning.

It takes about a week for that water to reach the lower Mississippi, which is wider and deeper and has a larger carrying capacity.

“There is a chance we could see that crest fall just slightly in Vicksburg, but I would still prepare for 46 feet at this point,” Pope said. “We’re thinking the crest will be fairly similar to what we saw in June of 2002.”

In 2002, the river topped out at 45.4 feet. If the river reaches 46 feet as forecast, it would be the highest the river has been in Vicksburg since March 1997, when it rose to 49.1 feet.

Today the river was at 41.3 feet, a rise of 0.7 foot from Monday.

Pope said there’s also good news in the weather models, which are forecasting lower expected rainfall in the Upper Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys this week.

“The five-day rainfall forecast for those areas is now less than 1 inch to maybe 2 inches,” he said. “At least through Sunday we’re not seeing anything that would increase the crests in the lower river areas.”

Regardless, areas of Vicksburg and Warren County are going to flood, and are already taking on water. The Big Black River has spilled out of its banks south of the city. A portion of Chickasaw Road is under water and impassable near Kings Point Ferry. Part of Long Lake Road, which runs off E.W. Haining Road, was under water. Many roads on the unprotected side of the levee off Mississippi 465 are also under water, including Ziegler Road where homes on stilts have become inaccessible by vehicle.

Vicksburg Building and Inspection Director Victor Gray-Lewis called a meeting with Vicksburg Mayor Laurence Leyens and Aldermen Michael Mayfield and Sid Beauman Monday to discuss what will be done.

“We already know it’s going to be in houses,” said Gray-Lewis of the rising waters, referring to areas in Kings that took on water in 2002.

Gray-Lewis explained that the ordinance updated in 2003 allows for a structure to be torn down if it is damaged due to flooding by more than 50 percent of its preflooded appraised value. The “substantial damage” clause, as it is commonly referred to, is defined by Federal Emergency Management Agency guidelines, and must be adopted by many municipalities in order to be eligible for the National Flood Insurance Program.

Vicksburg has not enforced the substantial damage clause, but Gray-Lewis said it may come into play this year.

The idea of the federal standard is to avoid repeated insurance claims by banning construction in frequently flooded areas or requiring structures be elevated above flood level.

Gray-Lewis said he doubted any of the Vicksburg residents who could be affected by the ordinance could afford major repairs.

“You’re dealing with people who have no money,” he said. “They can barely buy the Clorox to spray in their homes (following a flood).”

Leyens said he does not want to put anyone out of their home who has no where else to go, and suggested the city could perhaps hear affected residents’ pleas to keep their homes on a case-by-case basis if they experience substantial damage.

“The challenge here is we have people who are fifth, sixth generation families in those homes, and we don’t want to displace them because of that emotional value,” he said. “I’d like to if we can partner with Habitat (for Humanity) or the housing authority to provide some options for these people.

Gray-Lewis said he has called the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency to see about another round of buyouts, but has not received a response.

Mississippi RiverCREST FORECAST46.0 feet on April 4Today’s stage: 41.3 feetRose: 0.7 footFlood stage: 43 feetRoads and streets expected to flood this week include Ford Road, Hutson Street (200 block), Pittman Road (400 block), Williams Street, Hardin Road, Jackson Lane, Brown’s Alley, Railroad Alley, Eva Street, Young Alley, Round Alley, Water Well Road, Randle Street, Rankin Alley, Chickasaw Road (80 block and up), Chickasaw Lane, Chickasaw Drive, Thompson Lake Road, Kings Crossing (100 block and up), Falk Steel Road (200 block, even numbered addresses).Updated river forecasts are on the Internet at www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfcMississippi RiverPast high readingsYearDateGauge1973May 1351.61974Feb. 944.21975April 1248.01976March 732.41977April 2132.41978April 939.81979April 2647.91980April 1440.51981June 1432.51982Dec. 1939.71983May 2749.31984May 2545.81985March 1842.21986Oct. 2035.11987March 1336.51988Jan. 636.41989March 841.01990June 842.81991Jan. 2044.41992Dec. 3134.41993May 1843.61994May 346.01995June 1247.01996June 143.61997March 2249.11998May 1443.61999Feb. 1341.72000March 629.32001March 839.92002June 345.42003May 2943.02004Dec. 2039.32005Jan. 3144.52006March 2731.62007Jan. 2637.8Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers