Moderate rain over Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri in the next few days will not push the Mississippi River up any higher at Vicksburg, said Marty Pope, senior service hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Jackson. Five-day weather models predict affected areas could receive anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain.

“The amount of rain forecast will basically keep the river stage up – it won’t raise it,” said Pope. “Once you get a crest and the river starts falling, it takes some excessive rain to turn it around, which is not what we’re talking about here. However, we are talking about a very slow, slow fall in the river.”

Today the river stage at Vicksburg was 50.9 feet, with no change from Tuesday. The river topped flood stage of 43 feet at the city on March 29, and on Saturday reached 50.9 feet, where it remains. The last time the river stage fell at the city was March 5, when it measured 31.9 feet.

The Flood of 2008’s nearest rival was in 1973 when the stage at Vicksburg crested at 51.6 feet.

Even if rainfall only keeps the river from receding, any precipitation in the Mississippi Delta could have a much larger effect on the 4,093 square miles of land in the Yazoo backwater area. An estimated 304,000 acres of forest and farmland are already flooded in the backwater area, and an additional 100,000 acres are expected to go under by the time the gates of the Steele Bayou Control Structure are opened. The gates have been closed since March 13 to keep floodwaters from the river out of the backwater area.

Today the landside water stage of the Steele Bayou structure was 91 feet, while the riverside stage was 100.1 feet, meaning more than 9 feet of water is being held out of the backwater area. The gates of the Steele Bayou structure cannot be opened until the river side water stage is lower than the land side, which the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has said could take four weeks. With normal rainfall, the Corps predicts the backwater area water stage could reach as high as 94 feet by then, which would begin to flood homes. If those levels are reached, it would be the worst flooding the area has experienced in 25 years.

Steele Bayou is the lone drainage point for the backwater area, which is enclosed by levee structures that serve as walls of a giant bathtub once the gates of the control structure are closed.

Mississippi RiverTODAY’S STAGE50.9 feet SaturdayROSE: No changeFLOOD STAGE: 43 feetSTEELE BAYOU:Landside: 91.0Riverside: 100.1Flood PhotosSlideshowGallery