Regular legislative sessions in Mississippi are not known for starting off with a bang. The 2009 session will likely follow that pattern when the House and Senate are gaveled to order in the Capitol on Tuesday.

The trend is for some low-key and routine matters to be handled early-on. Later, when the Legislature’s series of self-imposed deadlines start arriving, the intensity of activity in the 90-day session will pick up.

While the budget is always a big topic, it might be bigger than usual this year. The reason, of course, is that the state may actually receive less money in the fiscal year that starts July 1 than it has this year. A complicating factor is that no one knows or can know whether that will be the case.

All spending plans are based on projections that are usually sound and reliable. Usually. But the roller-coaster national economy has changed things. The state’s income is directly tied to the private economy — jobs, retail sales, property values and new construction. If unfavorable trends continue, the state will see a decline. If there’s a turnaround, the state will prosper, too — and there will be more money for public expenses large and small. Already this fiscal year, the state’s income is more than $40 million below the projection. And with six months left, estimates are there may be $100 million less revenue than anticipated.

As The Associated Press has reported, many neighboring states have already had the opportunity to chop their budgets — some by billions — for this fiscal year and in anticipation of the next one.

In Mississippi, however, look for officials to avoid slashing funds or programs. They may whittle, but odds are they’ll make promises for funding — even if the money doesn’t arrive during the next budget year.

There are other issues, none particularly earth-shaking.

Voting

In the aftermath of a presidential election with more states than ever allowing less-stringent registration requirements and early voting, look for liberalizing Mississippi’s rules to be discussed. It’s something Democrats favor and they control the House. But over in the Senate, Republicans have long touted a requirement for voter ID as an essential tool to fight fraud.

There may well be a compromise in which early voting (in some form) is paired with voter ID legislation (in some form) that will be palatable to majorities in both chambers.

Taxes

Although Gov. Haley Barbour’s tax study commission turned in a timid list of recommendations, one of them was to increase the state’s 18-cents-per-pack tax on cigarettes. Majorities in both chambers of the Legislature have approved an increase in years past and Barbour, who was an opponent, now says he will, too. The governor wants a tiered increase with a lesser tax on brands made by companies still paying a settlement to the state and the revenue going to the general fund. Lawmakers have a variety of proposals, most of them for across-the-board increases that are greater than Barbour’s and several pledging the revenue to specific programs, most notably Medicaid.

Another tax that may be discussed is the levy on hospitals that accept Medicaid patients. Barbour says this would not be an increase, just a return to a tax that was lifted in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The hospitals and House Speaker Bill McCoy see things differently.

Salaries

A five-year program of increasing teacher pay ended two years ago and there was a 3 percent increase this year. Lawmakers have also awarded other raises to officials. The 2009 session will not likely see many, if any, raise legislation.  “I don’t see any funding for pay raises just now,” is how Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant put it.

Education

The Legislature makes three major education allocations. One is for universities, another for community colleges and the third, and largest, for K-12 schools under the Mississippi Adequate Education Program. For now, officials, including the governor, say they intend to fully fund the Mississippi Adequate Education program. But again, it’s one thing to promise the money during the session and another to deliver it. Most school board members and superintendents have walked this road before. Prudence will be their guide, because even if the state promises money in the year to come, the check that actually comes in the mail will be smaller than pledged if the state’s income doesn’t meet expectations.