The Mississippi River is forecast to top out Saturday at 4 feet above flood stage of 43 feet on the gauge at the bridges in Vicksburg, but hydrologist Kai Roth said it is going to take days before the river begins to fall.

“We’re looking at it to hold up at its crest for a couple days and then start to fall slowly,” said Roth, of the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center in Slidell, La. “It’s a pretty big, broad crest coming down from upstream.”

Mississippi River

Today’s stage: 46.8 feet

24-hour change: +.3

Crest forecast: 47 feet on Saturday

Flood stage: 43 feet

The river was at 46.8 feet at 7 a.m., a rise of .3 feet in a 24 hours and just inches shy of the crest.

Upstream, the Mississippi is falling at Memphis and Helena and said to be at or near the crest in Arkansas City and Greenville.

Once a turnaround starts here, the reading is expected to remain above flood stage until June 2, according to the extended forecast. Last year, the river topped flood stage at the city on March 29, crested at 50.9 feet on April 21 and remained above flood stage until May 10. It was the highest measured river stage recorded at the city in 35 years, dating back to 1973 when the river topped out at 51.6 feet.

Two to 3 inches of rain are expected to fall over Vicksburg over this Memorial Day holiday weekend, which Roth said could extend the crest but should not cause higher readings. It will, however, cause even more acres of timber and farmland to go under water inside the 4,093-square-miles of levee-locked land north of Vicksburg known as the Yazoo Backwater Area.

As of this morning, Steele Bayou — the lone drainage point for the impounded area — was holding about 3 feet of river water out. The land side stage was 92.4 feet and the river side stage was 95.4 feet. The gates of Steel Bayou were closed on May 10, and they cannot be reopened until the land side stage is higher than the river side stage.

Without any additional rainfall, the Corps had estimated the land side stage would top out at 92.5 feet at the end of the month. Robert Simrall, Corps chief of water control, said this morning the agency will compute a revised forecast early next week after they have rainfall totals over the area.

In 2008, Steel Bayou was closed on March 13 and reopened on May 8, at which point the water stage inside the structure was 92.3 feet and the Corps estimated a total of 344,000 acres of forest and farmland were flooded. While local rainfall during last year’s flood was below average, Simrall said local rainfall has put backwater area farmers into even more jeopardy this year.

“Local rainfall was relatively mild during the flood last year. This year, we don’t have as high a river, but we’ve had a lot more rain over the backwater area,” said Simrall. “Steele Bayou (control structure) was holding out about 8 feet of water last year when the river crested, and this year it’s only holding out about 3 feet.”

Due to the later timing of this year’s flood, farmers may not be able to replant fields by the time backwater area farmland dries out. Last year, farmers either delayed planting or were able to replant once the water receded. Farmland off Chickasaw and Long Lake roads — also north of the city but not inside the backwater area — has been under water for more than a week.

For decades, the Corps has proposed pumps to move the water out of the impounded area, but the latest version of the plans were vetoed by the Environmental Protection Agency in 2008.

North of Vicksburg, flooding is having a lighter effect on areas hit hardest by last spring’s flood — primarily due to the fact that many people displaced last spring have still not returned to their homes in Ford and Waltersville subdivisions.

City officials estimate about 20 residents are displaced from 45 homes on Williams Street, Marys Alley and Pittman and Williams roads due to flooding, compared to the estimated 145 residents who were displaced from 101 homes last year.

South of the city, LeTourneau Road will not be affected by the current crest. The two lane road was topped and closed last year at about 48 feet, causing a five-week layoff of 1,100 employees at LeTourneau Technologies, the riverside oil rig manufacturer at the end of the road.

Mississippi 465 — which connects the Eagle Lake community to U.S. 61 North — was closed on Wednesday, forcing about 600 Eagle Lake residents to use a narrow, gravel levee road.

The U.S. Coast Guard last week restricted barge traffic. Southbound tows are allowed to pass beneath the bridges at Vicksburg only during daytime hours. Five barge tows struck support piers on the U.S. 80 bridge in a 40-day span during last year’s flood.

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Contact Steve Sanoski at ssanoski@vicksburg.com