Revised forecast shows river cresting today

Published 12:00 am Sunday, May 24, 2009

The Mississippi River at Vicksburg topped 47 feet Saturday and is on track to crest nearly half a foot higher today, the National Weather Service said.

Revised estimates Saturday had the river topping out at 47.4 feet this morning, and remaining at that level until Wednesday, when it is expected to begin falling. The revision was an increase from an earlier NWS prediction that the river would crest at 47 feet Saturday.

“Right now we’re seeing the points upstream, Arkansas City and Greenville, just getting to crest,” said David Welch, hydrologist at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center in Slidell, La., Saturday afternoon. “Based on that, we thought we could see Vicksburg going up a couple of tenths higher. Plus, rain that’s forecast could add a tenth or two there.”

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That estimate held steady Saturday evening, confirmed LMRFC hydrologist Kai Roth. “A lot of the water there is coming out of the Yazoo River,” he said. “It takes several days for all that water to drain into the Mississippi.”

The rise Saturday represented a 0.4 foot increase over Friday morning’s 46.8 feet. At Vicksburg, the river reaches flood stage at 43 feet, a point the river passed on May 14. It is not expected to fall below flood stage until June 2.

Last year, in the worst flooding at Vicksburg since 1973, the river topped flood stage March 29, crested at 50.9 feet April 21 and remained above flood stage until May 10, displacing dozens of Vicksburg residents from their homes and causing layoffs and crop losses.

Light rain fell steadily over the region Saturday, accumulating to about .1 inch through the afternoon. Showers were forecast for Saturday night and all day today, with possible accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch. Showers and thunderstorms were also predicted in the Vicksburg area Monday through Friday.

North of the city, the rain will cause the water level in the levee-locked Yazoo Backwater Area near Eagle Lake to continue to rise slowly, said Robert Simrall, U.S Army Corps of Engineers chief of water control. The area, usually drained at Steele Bayou, has been impounded since May 10 when the gates of the Steele Bayou control structure were closed to prevent higher water on the river side from entering the levee-controlled area.

On the land side, readings at 5 p.m. Saturday showed water levels increasing to 92.7 feet, up 0.3 feet from Friday. The river side stage was 95.7, also up 0.3 feet, Simrall said.

Without additional rainfall, the Corps had estimated the land side stage would reach 92.5 feet at the end of the month. Simrall said a new estimate would be made after this week’s rain.

Due to the later timing of this year’s flood, farmers may not be able to replant fields in time for adequate crop growth.

“It’s probably as bad on some of this land — or even worse than it was last year,” said Bill Parker, a retired Eagle Lake-area farmer. “A lot of corn is going to be lost. Most farmers will probably replant (soy)beans.”

Steele Bayou gates will remain closed until the river side stage is at or lower than the land side stage.

Mississippi 465 continued to be closed, with traffic to Eagle Lake diverted onto the narrow gravel road atop the levee. Saturday afternoon, a security guard checked the identifications of cars attempting to use the levee road. Traffic was light, but steady.

Warren County Sheriff Martin Pace said additional patrols had been assigned to the area.

“We’ve had four to five deputies up there all day, covering flooded areas to prevent any property loss,” he said. “We have not experienced any problems.”

Within city limits, some streets in the Ford and Waltersville subdivisions were under water, with at least 20 residents displaced from their homes since yards began to fill with water Tuesday. About 45 homes on Williams Street, Marys Alley, Ford Road and Pittman Road were affected.

Last year, about 145 residents were displaced from 101 homes.

Rising river water was also lapping at LeTourneau Road Saturday afternoon, with acres of farmlands submerged and backwater pooled around woodlands. Driveways leading to LeTourneau Technologies also had taken on water. Company representatives could not be reached for information on whether operations there would be affected.

Last year, 1,100 LeTourneau employees suffered a five-week layoff when floods closed LeTourneau Road.

No incidents were reported Saturday in ship and barge traffic on the river. The U.S. Coast Guard last week restricted barge traffic, with southbound tows allowed to pass beneath the Vicksburg bridges only during daylight hours. Five barge tows struck support piers on the U.S. 80 bridge last year during the flooding.

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Contact Pamela Hitchins at phitchins@vicksburgpost.com