Mississippi started its budget year about six weeks ago. Through next June 30, the state plans to collect and spend about $6 billion through its General Fund. Almost all state operations have as much money or more pledged than ever before. There are no cuts, or at least no significant cuts in the spending plan.

Because the national economy has been in a tailspin, Congress voted to provide as much as 25 percent of the state budget, $1.5 billion, through the $787 billion federal stimulus legislation. This was unprecedented.

In theory, as state economies ramp back up, the need for federal infusions will lessen.

In theory.

But witness what is really taking place:

Last week the Tax Commission reported that the Mississippi’s July 2009 tax revenues were down $56 million, or 21 percent, from the same period last year. Fine. Stimulus can cover that.

But the July revenue was down $26 million, or about 11.3 percent, from the estimate on which the state budget was set.

If shortfalls continue at that level for the next 11 months — or, more likely, worsen — then even with the stimulus money, state operations can expect only 90 cents of every dollar they’re expecting.

Said another way, there won’t be enough money to pay every 10th teacher. Every 10th Medicaid client’s bills won’t be paid. The state allocation to supplement community college and university students will cover only 90 of every 100 students.

That’s bad, but still manageable.

Thereafter, however, if stimulus funds are not renewed or perhaps even increased and the economy does not gin up rapidly over the next year to 18 months, the state could be looking at its resources chopped 40 percent or more.

The federal government is in far worse fiscal shape than the state — every dollar in the stimulus plan is borrowed — and with federal tax revenues on pace to finish 18 percent below last year’s figures, Congress might not be in a mood — and might not have the resources — to dig an even deeper hole to bail out Mississippi and other states.

Government programs are great, but their existence depends on government being able to scrape off a share when commercial activity takes place.

Candidate Obama talked incessantly about “change.” We might be on the cusp of change we can’t imagine.