Recession: It’s over, but road forward is treacherous
Published 12:00 am Sunday, November 1, 2009
In textbook terms, the recession is over.
Textbooks, however, do not make car or house notes, pay rent or put food on the table. Jobs do that.
Official figures released Thursday say the economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years. Significantly, the expansion was fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes. But it’s still a signal that the engine of commerce is heating back up, ending the worst recession since the 1930s. It is welcome news.
It must be noted, however, that Vicksburg and Warren County remain, like localities nationwide, hurt by factory closings and job losses. It was also an abysmal year for most farmers with adverse weather from pre-planting to post-harvest.
By definition, a recession is when there’s less economic activity in a series of three-month periods than in previous periods. The economy was on the downswing for months before the just-ended recession was declared to have started. Then four straight quarters of contracting economic activity followed, the first time that’s happened on records dating to 1947.
Logically, it will take months for the recovery to be felt here.
Most troublesome is that much of the expansion noted in the July-September period was on the back of borrowed federal dollars for programs such as Cash for Clunkers and the $8,000 tax credits that spurred first-time home buying. That, plus the fact that Mississippi and most other states are relying on billions of dollars in federal stimulus cash to remain operational chills the joy of the moment, so to speak.
The road forward continues to be treacherous. There is a tremendous risk that Congress will use the light at the end of the tunnel as a basis to continue its totally reckless spending and push the nation past a point of no return in deficit spending. Similarly, legislators who go to work on next year’s budget in January may be too optimistic.
Although his actions don’t always indicate he believes it, President Barack Obama repeatedly says he knows a strong private economy is the bedrock without which no one prospers. Last week’s news was good, but there’s a long way to go before anyone should dare say the economy has recovered.