For anyone with farming or timber interests north or south of the bluffs at Vicksburg, weeks of intense monitoring of river stages have begun.

The Flood of 2008, when river levels approached those of the devastation of 1973, is still in recent memory. So is backwater flooding inside the Yazoo levee, which was more widespread in 2009 than it was in 2008.

The assumption is that with a winter of major rains and snow across the middle of America, the stage is set for another year of flooding along the lower Mississippi, but that’s far from certain.

For now, “above-normal potential” is as far as experts such as Marty Pope, senior service hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Jackson, feel confident in saying.

Even the most advanced computer modeling comes down to an educated guess. There are too many variables to predict.  “The snow melt up north is over for the most part, so what we have to watch out for now are heavy rains over the Upper Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys,” Pope said.

Upstream stages are rising almost a foot a day, but the river grows broader and deeper as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico. The gauge here might not even reach the “full” reading of 43 feet.

For planters, hundreds of thousands of dollars can rest on a decision of when to plant for optimal growing conditions. Mother Nature is fickle. She gives hints, but no guarantees.